Dividend trap: 7 warning signs to check before you buy
A dividend trap is a stock whose high yield pulls you in just before the dividend gets cut. The price usually falls on the cut, so you lose on the shares and on the payout at once. Most traps show the same warning signs first.
What a dividend trap is
A dividend trap is a stock with a high Dividend yield that can't keep paying it. The yield looks great. Then the company cuts the dividend, and the share price drops.
You get hit twice. Your checks get smaller, and your shares are worth less. Often the drop in price is far bigger than all the dividends you collected.
Why does the yield look so high in the first place? Yield is the dividend divided by the price. When the price falls, the yield goes up, even though nothing got better. A yield often looks highest right before the cut, because the price has already started falling.
For the basics of how dividends work, see dividend investing explained.
The 7 warning signs
1. The yield is far above its peers
Compare the yield with similar companies in the same industry. If peers pay around 4% and this one pays 8%, ask why. Usually it's because the price fell, and the market thinks a cut is coming.
2. The payout ratio is over 100% of earnings
The Payout ratio is the dividend divided by earnings per share. Over 100% means the company pays out more than it earns. It can do that for a while. It can't do it forever.
3. Free cash flow doesn't cover the dividend
Dividends are paid in cash. Free cash flow is the cash left after running and keeping up the business. If free cash flow is falling, or is smaller than the dividend, the money has to come from somewhere else.
4. Debt is rising to pay the dividend
Borrowing to pay shareholders is a stopgap. Watch for debt climbing year after year while profits stay flat. Higher interest rates make that debt cost more, which squeezes the dividend further.
5. Others in the same industry are cutting
When one company in a sector cuts, ask what hit it. If it was falling prices for what the whole industry sells, its peers face the same problem.
6. The yield includes a one-time payment
A special dividend is a one-off payment. Some sites add it to the last 12 months of dividends, which makes the yield look bigger than the regular payout. Check what the regular dividend is. See forward vs trailing dividend yield.
7. The raises stopped
A company that raised its dividend for years and then holds it flat may be saving cash. A flat dividend isn't a cut. But it's often the step before one, especially next to signs 2 to 4.
One sign alone proves nothing. Three or four together deserve a hard look.
A worked example: the yield that got cut
Here's a made-up company, Harbor Pipe (hypothetical, not a trade idea). You buy 250 shares at $40 for $10,000.
Harbor Pipe pays $0.80 a quarter, or $3.20 a year. That's an 8% yield. Similar companies yield about 4%.
The warning numbers, before you buy:
| Check | Harbor Pipe | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Yield | 8% | Twice the peers |
| Earnings per share | $2.50 | Dividend is $3.20 |
| Payout ratio | 128% | $3.20 ÷ $2.50 |
| Free cash flow per share | $2.00 | Covers 62.5% of the dividend |
| Shortfall per share | −$1.20 | $2.00 − $3.20, paid with debt |
You collect two quarterly payments. Then the company cuts the dividend in half, to $0.40 a quarter. The price falls to $26.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Bought 250 shares at $40 | $10,000 |
| Two dividends (250 × $0.80 × 2) | +$400 |
| Shares now worth (250 × $26) | $6,500 |
| Change in share value | −$3,500 |
| Net result | −$3,100 |
Check it the other way: $6,500 in shares plus $400 in cash is $6,900. From $10,000, that's −$3,100.
Six months of an 8% yield brought in $400. The cut cost $3,500. And after the cut, the new dividend is $1.60 a year on a $26 price. That's still a yield of about 6.2%. It can still show up on a "high yield" screen and catch the next buyer.
How to check a stock in five minutes
- Look up the yield, then the yields of three similar companies.
- Work out the payout ratio on earnings. Then on free cash flow. The dividend payout ratio calculator does both. For REITs, use FFO (funds from operations) instead of earnings.
- Look at debt over the last three years. Up, flat or down?
- Read the latest earnings release for words like "review", "flexibility" or "capital allocation" next to the dividend.
- Check whether the dividend has been raised in the last year or two.
If the stock fails several checks, the high yield is the market telling you something.
What if you already own one?
Don't panic-sell on one bad number. Ask whether you'd buy it today at this price, knowing what you know. If not, the dividend alone isn't a reason to stay.
If you sell covered calls on a high yielder, remember that a premium doesn't protect you from a big drop. A trap's price can fall far below your strike. More on that in the wheel strategy.
In Canada, the same signs apply to TSX stocks and REITs, and to holdings in a TFSA or RRSP. The account shelters tax. It doesn't shelter you from a cut.
Questions
What is a dividend trap?
A stock with a high yield that the company can't keep paying. The yield draws buyers in, then the dividend is cut and the price usually falls. Buyers lose on the payout and on the shares.
Is a high dividend yield always a trap?
No. Some sectors, like REITs and utilities, often pay more than average. The question is whether the dividend is covered by cash flow. A yield far above similar companies is the sign to dig in.
What payout ratio is too high?
Over 100% of earnings means the company pays more than it earns. As a rough rule of thumb, many investors get uneasy above about 75%. REITs are judged on FFO, not earnings, because their accounting profit is pushed down by property depreciation.
Does the stock always fall when a dividend is cut?
Usually, but not always by much. If the market already expected the cut, much of the drop may have happened before the news. That's why the yield looks so high before a cut.
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