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What is implied volatility, in simple terms?
Implied volatility is the market's guess at how much a stock will move. When it's high, option premiums are high. When it's low, they're low.
The short answer
Implied volatility, or IV, is the size of move the market expects from a stock over the next year, shown as a percent. It's worked out from option prices. A stock with an IV of 20% is expected to move less than one with an IV of 60%.
People call it the market's fear gauge. When traders are nervous about big moves, they pay more for options, and IV goes up.
Why it matters to sellers
Option sellers are paid to take on the risk of a move. The bigger the move the market expects, the more it pays.
So IV drives the premium:
- High IV: bigger premiums. The market expects big swings.
- Low IV: smaller premiums. The market expects calm.
A big premium isn't a bargain. It's the market telling you the stock could move a lot. That's the risk you're being paid for.
One example (an illustration, not a trade idea)
A made-up stock, XYZ, trades at $50. You look at a 30-day $45 put. Here's roughly what it might pay at two IV levels (made-up, round numbers):
| XYZ's IV | Put's premium | What the market is saying |
|---|---|---|
| Low (about 25%) | $0.30 | A $5 drop in a month is unlikely |
| High (about 60%) | $1.50 | A $5 drop in a month is quite possible |
Say you sell the high-IV put for $1.50 and collect $150.
| XYZ at expiry | What happens | Result |
|---|---|---|
| $52 | Put expires | +$150 |
| $46 | Put expires | +$150 |
| $43.50 | Assigned at $45, worth $43.50 | −$150 + $150 = $0 |
| $38 | Assigned at $45, worth $38 | −$700 + $150 = −$550 |
Math examples, not promises. The bigger premium came with a bigger chance of the losing rows.
When IV changes
IV isn't fixed. It moves:
- Before earnings, IV usually climbs. Traders expect a big move on the report.
- After earnings, IV often drops fast. That's called IV crush. See IV crush explained.
- In a market sell-off, IV across most stocks jumps.
- In calm markets, it drifts lower.
A falling IV helps a seller: the option you sold loses value even if the stock doesn't move. A rising IV hurts: the option gains value even if the stock is flat.
High IV or low IV: which is better to sell?
Neither is free. In the wheel strategy, many sellers look for a stock they'd own anyway, then check whether its IV is high or low for that stock.
- A calm stock with high IV for itself often means news is coming. Find out what.
- A wild stock with normal IV still pays a big premium, because big moves are normal for it. See the Tesla wheel page for what that looks like.
Always ask: why is the premium this big? If you can't answer, don't sell.
A quick check before you sell
- Find the stock's IV on your broker's Options chain.
- Compare it with where it usually sits for that stock. Many brokers show an IV rank or percentile for this.
- Look for the reason: an earnings date, a big event, or a shaky market.
- Work out the loss if the stock falls to where the premium says it might. If that number would hurt, the trade is too big.
Questions
Is high implied volatility good for sellers?
It means bigger premiums, but also a bigger expected move. Over time, sellers get hit by those moves. It's a trade-off, not a gift.
What's the difference between implied and historical volatility?
Historical volatility measures how much the stock really moved in the past. Implied volatility is what option prices expect for the future.
Where do I see implied volatility?
Most brokers show IV on the Options chain, next to each strike, and often a single IV number for the stock.
Why did my option lose value when the stock didn't move?
Time passing (theta) and falling IV both shrink an option's price. If you sold it, that's in your favour.
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