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PPI report explained: what producer prices tell you

Before prices reach the shop shelf, they start somewhere else. The PPI report shows that earlier step, and it's simpler than the name sounds.

Beginner guide · 5-minute read · Updated 2026-10-21

What PPI measures

PPI stands for Producer Price Index. It tracks the prices businesses get for what they sell: goods, services and building work. Think of it as inflation seen from the seller's side, before things reach you.

CPI asks, "What did shoppers pay?" PPI asks, "What did producers charge?"

• Who publishes it: the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the same agency that publishes CPI
• When: once a month at 8:30 am ET, usually around the middle of the month
• Close to CPI: it often comes out the same week as CPI, sometimes the day before, sometimes after

The release dates are posted on bls.gov.

A simple picture: the pipeline

Picture a pipe. Raw materials go in one end. Finished products come out the other and land in shops.

1. A farm sells wheat to a mill.
2. The mill sells flour to a bakery.
3. The bakery sells bread to a store.
4. The store sells bread to you.

PPI watches prices along steps 1 to 3. CPI watches step 4. If prices rise early in the pipe, some of that may reach shoppers later. "May" is the key word. Businesses can also absorb the cost, so PPI isn't a forecast of CPI.

The lines on the calendar

Your economic calendar shows PPI as a few lines.

"Final demand" means goods and services sold to the last buyer in the chain, not to another factory. It's the main PPI headline.

Calendars don't always agree on which "core" they show. The BLS publishes more than one. Check the label before you compare actual and forecast.

Why PPI can move markets

On its own, PPI usually moves price less than CPI. But it can still matter for two reasons.

1. It hints at pressure in the pipe. A big jump can make traders worry that shop prices will follow.

2. Parts of it feed into PCE. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, uses some PPI pieces, like certain health care and airfare prices. So when CPI and PPI are both out, forecasters update their guess for PCE. That guess shapes what traders expect from the Fed.

Here's the thing. On a week when PPI comes out after CPI, it can confirm or soften the CPI story. On a week when it comes before, it can set the mood going into CPI.

Actual vs forecast

Like every report, the surprise is what counts. The market has already priced in the forecast.

PPI numbers also get revised. Last month's figure can change in the new report, so read the "previous" column too.

What a beginner can do on PPI day

1. Check the date. It's easy to forget PPI when everyone talks about CPI.
2. Treat 8:30 am ET as a news minute. No new trades 15–30 minutes before. Be flat, or decide in advance about open trades.
3. Expect wider spreads and possible Slippage in the first minutes.
4. Wait 15–30 minutes after. Then follow your normal plan: the last place price turned around, a candle body closing past it, and a size set from your stop with the position size calculator.

Common mistakes

• Thinking PPI predicts CPI. It can hint, but businesses don't always pass costs on.
• Comparing the wrong "core". One calendar's core PPI may not match another's.
• Ignoring it completely. It's smaller than CPI, but it's still an 8:30 am release that can widen spreads.
• Trading the headline. A big number doesn't tell you which way price will go next. The chart does.

Try it today

1. Find the next PPI date on the BLS schedule. Check how many days it is from CPI.
2. Look up the last PPI release and write down the final demand m/m number.
3. Compare it to the CPI m/m number from the same month. Were they close or far apart?
4. Add PPI to your weekly news list in your trading plan.

Questions