Expectancy calculator: do your trades actually add up?
Win rate is the number everyone brags about — and the one that tells you the least. Enter your win rate and your average win and loss, and see what your trades really add up to per trade.
How it works: a "unit of risk" is what you lose when your stop is hit. Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). It's the average result per trade, in units of risk, if your past numbers repeat — which they may not. It describes your journal; it doesn't predict the future.
Win rate isn't the whole story
A trader who wins 70% of the time can still lose money if the losses are big and the wins are small. A trader who wins 35% can come out ahead if the wins are much bigger than the losses. You need both numbers — and you only get honest ones by writing every trade down. See How to keep a trading journal.
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