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NG futures explained: why natural gas moves so much

Natural gas heats homes in winter and powers air conditioners in summer. So the weather forecast can move it more than almost any news headline.

Market guide · 6-minute read · Updated 2026-10-21

At a glance

Check cmegroup.com for current specs.

What moves it

Gas is hard to store and slow to move around. So small changes in demand can shift the price a lot.

• Weather forecasts. A colder winter forecast means more heating. A hotter summer means more power for air conditioning. Updated forecasts can move NG before anything happens.
• The weekly storage report. The EIA reports how much gas is in US storage on Thursdays at 10:30 am ET (shifted for holidays). Traders compare it to what was expected.
• Exports. The US ships gas abroad as LNG (gas cooled into a liquid). Outages or new export plants change demand.
• Production. How much gas US wells pump. Big swings here change the supply side.
• Storms. Hurricanes near the Gulf Coast can hit production and export sites.

Notice what's missing? Natural gas often ignores the stock market. Its own supply and weather story usually matters more.

When it's busiest

• 9:00 am–2:30 pm ET: the main US session.
• Thursday 10:30 am ET: the storage report. Expect fast candles.
• Weather model updates can move it at odd hours, including overnight.

ET hours stay fixed through the year because CME uses Chicago time.

Its personality

• One of the most jumpy futures markets. Big daily ranges are normal. That's Volatility, and it cuts both ways.
• Seasonal. Attention swings between winter heating and summer cooling.
• Monthly expiry, physical delivery. Each month is its own contract, settled by delivering gas at Henry Hub in Louisiana. Retail traders roll or close well before the end. Next month and the month after can trade at very different prices.
• Weekend gaps. A weekend forecast change shows up at Sunday's open.

Reading it with our method

With NG, the bigger chart is your anchor. Mark the last places price turned around on the daily chart. The daily direction keeps you from reacting to every forecast wiggle.

Only count a candle body closing past a level. Thursday's report often leaves tails that get taken back.

Then size carefully. One NG contract moves $100 per cent. Example: your stop is 5 cents away, which is 50 ticks × $10 = $500. If your plan says risk $100, one NG contract is too big for that stop. A smaller contract from CME, a different market, or no trade at all are all valid answers. Run it through the futures tick value calculator. A math example, not a promise.

Common mistakes

• Using stock-index stop sizes. NG's normal swing is far wider in percent.
• Holding through Thursday 10:30 am ET by accident.
• Comparing months. A cheap far month isn't a bargain. It's a different contract with a different season.
• No daily cap. Big ranges make a daily loss limit more useful, not less.

Questions