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The 10-year Treasury yield explained: the rate behind every market
The 10-year Treasury yield is one interest rate that half the financial world watches. Stocks, gold, the dollar and even home loans all keep an eye on it.
At a glance
| US 10-year Treasury yield | |
|---|---|
| What it tracks | The yearly return investors get for lending to the US government for 10 years |
| How it's set | By buying and selling of 10-year Treasury notes in the open market, not by the Fed |
| Shown as | A percent per year. Moves are often counted in basis points (1 basis point = 0.01%) |
| Trading hours (ET) | The Treasury market trades nearly around the clock on weekdays; busiest in US hours |
| Related futures / ETFs | ZN 10-year Treasury note futures; bond ETFs such as TLT (longer bonds) |
| What moves it most | Inflation, the Fed's expected path, jobs and growth data, Treasury auctions |
On TradingView, the chart is usually listed as US10Y. The US Treasury also publishes daily yields on its website.
Price and yield move opposite
A Treasury note pays fixed interest. If buyers bid its price up, the fixed interest is a smaller slice of what they paid, so the yield falls. If they sell it and the price drops, the yield rises.
In plain words: yield up = bond prices down. That's why TLT and ZN futures usually move opposite to this chart. See Bond yield.
What moves it
The Fed sets short-term rates. The 10-year is set by traders guessing where rates and inflation will be over the next decade.
- Inflation. CPI at 8:30 am ET. Hotter inflation often pushes the 10-year up.
- The Fed's path. FOMC statements at 2:00 pm ET and the press conference at 2:30 pm. Hints about future cuts or hikes matter as much as the decision.
- Jobs and growth. The jobs report (8:30 am ET, usually the first Friday) and GDP data shape the outlook.
- Auctions. The Treasury sells 10-year notes every month. Results come out at 1:00 pm ET. Weak demand can lift yields.
- Government borrowing. More debt to sell can mean investors want a higher yield to buy it.
- Fear. In a scare, money often flows into Treasuries, pushing yields down. Not every time.
When it's busiest
- 8:30 am ET: US data. The biggest single-minute moves often happen here.
- 9:30 – 11:00 am ET: stocks open and bond trading is heavy.
- 1:00 pm ET: auction results, on auction days.
- 2:00 – 3:00 pm ET: Fed days.
Bond trading in Asia and Europe happens overnight, so the chart moves then too, but usually more gently. US hours in ET stay the same all year.
Why every market watches it
- Stocks. Higher yields make future company profits worth less today. Fast-growing tech, in the Nasdaq-100, often feels it most.
- Gold. Gold pays no interest. Higher real yields often weigh on it.
- The dollar. Higher US yields can pull money into dollars. See the dollar index.
- Loans. Mortgage rates often follow the 10-year more than the Fed's own rate.
Its personality
- Slow trends, sharp days. Rate cycles can last years, but data days print big candles.
- Reacts first. It often moves before stocks open, so it can set the tone for the day.
- Basis points add up. A 10-basis-point day (0.10%) is a big day for this chart.
Reading it with our method
Even if you never trade bonds, the 10-year makes a good weather check.
Mark the last places it turned around on the daily chart. Is it making higher highs and higher lows? Then rates are rising, and rate-sensitive stocks may face a headwind.
A level only breaks when a candle body closes past it. If you trade ZN futures, size from your stop: one tick is $15.625 per contract. The futures tick value calculator does the math.
Common mistakes
- Thinking the Fed sets the 10-year. The Fed sets short-term rates. The market sets the 10-year.
- Forgetting price and yield are opposites. A rising yield chart means falling bond prices.
- Ignoring it as a stock trader. A jump in yields can move stocks on a quiet earnings day.
- Missing auction days. A 1:00 pm ET result can move yields with no other news.
Questions
What is the 10-year Treasury yield?
The yearly return the market demands to lend to the US government for 10 years. It changes every day as Treasury notes are bought and sold.
Does the Fed control the 10-year yield?
Not directly. The Fed sets short-term rates. The 10-year reflects what investors expect for rates and inflation over the next decade.
Why do stocks fall when the 10-year yield rises?
Higher yields make future profits worth less today and make safe bonds more attractive next to stocks. It doesn't happen every time.
What is a basis point?
One hundredth of a percent (0.01%). A yield moving from 4.00% to 4.25% has risen 25 basis points.
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