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TLT ETF explained: why long bonds fall when yields rise

TLT holds US government bonds that won't pay back for 20 years or more. That long wait makes it far more sensitive to interest rates than most people expect from "safe" bonds.

Market guide · 6-minute read · Updated 2026-10-21

At a glance

TLT is run by BlackRock's iShares and launched in July 2002. It pays out the bonds' interest as monthly distributions.

This page explains how TLT tends to move. It isn't a recommendation to buy or sell it.

The one idea to get

When interest rates rise, existing bonds lose value. When rates fall, they gain.

Here's why. Say an old bond pays 3% a year. New bonds now pay 5%. Nobody will pay full price for the 3% bond anymore, so its price drops until it's a fair deal again.

The longer a bond has left to run, the bigger that price change. TLT's bonds have 20+ years left, so a small change in long-term rates can move TLT a lot. See Bond yield.

What moves it

• Inflation. CPI at 8:30 am ET. Hotter inflation often pushes yields up and TLT down.
• The Fed. FOMC statements at 2:00 pm ET, press conference at 2:30 pm. What the Fed signals about future rates matters as much as today's decision.
• Jobs data. A strong jobs report (8:30 am ET, usually the first Friday) can lift yields.
• Treasury auctions. The US Treasury sells new long-term bonds on a public schedule. Weak demand at an auction can push yields up. Auction results usually come out at 1:00 pm ET.
• Fear. In a stock market scare, money often moves into Treasuries, which can lift TLT. Not every time: when inflation is the worry, stocks and bonds can fall together.

When it's busiest

• 8:30 am ET: data days. TLT moves in pre-market at many brokers; Treasury futures move at once.
• 9:30 – 10:30 am ET: the stock-market open for TLT.
• 1:00 pm ET: auction results, on auction days.
• 2:00 – 3:00 pm ET: Fed days.

The Treasury market itself trades almost all day on weekdays, so TLT can open with a Gap. US hours in ET stay the same all year.

Its personality

• Opposite to yields. On the chart, TLT usually looks like an upside-down chart of long-term yields.
• Bigger swings than "bond" suggests. In years of fast-rising rates, long bond funds like TLT have fallen hard. Safe from default isn't the same as safe from price swings.
• Long trends. Rate cycles can last years, so TLT's trends can too.
• Slow most days, sharp on data. Quiet sessions, then a big candle on a CPI or Fed day.

Reading it with our method

Mark the last places price turned around on the weekly and daily charts. Higher highs and higher lows, or lower ones? Trade only with that direction.

It helps to open the 10-year yield chart beside it. If yields are breaking higher, TLT is usually breaking lower.

A level only breaks when a candle body closes past it. Set your stop from the chart, then size from the stop. Example: you risk 100 units and your stop is 2.00 away. 100 ÷ 2 = 50 shares. A math example, not a promise. The position size calculator does this fast.

Common mistakes

• Treating it like cash. TLT holds safe-from-default bonds, but its price can swing widely.
• Forgetting it moves opposite to yields. "Rates are up" means TLT is usually down.
• Ignoring auctions. A 1:00 pm ET auction result can move it on a quiet day.
• Buying for the monthly payout alone. A small payout can be swamped by a price drop.

Questions