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News trading explained: what happens in the first minute

At 8:30 am ET on CPI day, price can move more in one minute than in the whole hour before. That speed is why news trading looks exciting. It's also why the first minute is the hardest minute to trade.

Beginner guide · 8-minute read · Updated 2026-10-21

What news trading is

News trading means making trades around scheduled economic releases or big events.

The biggest scheduled ones for US markets:

Company Earnings reports are the stock-by-stock version. See CPI and FOMC days and the nonfarm payrolls guide.

Why markets move on news

Before a release, forecasters publish an estimate. Prices already reflect roughly what people expect.

So the move usually comes from the surprise: the gap between the actual number and the forecast.

• Inflation hotter than expected can raise the odds of higher rates. That often moves the dollar, bond yields, stocks and gold.
• A number right on forecast can lead to a small move, or a jumpy one both ways.

The direction isn't fixed. The same surprise can move markets differently in different years. See how to read an economic calendar.

What happens in the first minute

Here's what tends to happen right at the release:

• Spreads widen. Market makers pull back. The gap between buy and sell prices can grow many times its normal size. See Spread.
• Prices jump. Price can skip levels with no trades in between.
• Slippage grows. Orders fill far from where you clicked. A Stop loss can fill well past its price. See Slippage.
• Whipsaw. Price can spike one way, then reverse the other way, within seconds or minutes.

On Fed days, there are often two moves: one at the 2:00 pm statement, another during the 2:30 pm press conference. They can point in opposite directions.

Where news trading fails

• Guessing the number. Even professional forecasters miss. Trading a guess before the release is a coin flip with wide spreads.
• Chasing the spike. Buying the first big candle often means buying the top of the whipsaw.
• "Straddles" that both get hit. Placing a buy stop above and a sell stop below can fill both in a whipsaw, each with slippage.
• Holding open trades into the release. A good trade with a normal stop can get stopped out by one spike, at a bad price.

The calmer approach: wait, then read

Many traders choose one of two simple plans:

1. Be flat. No open trades from 5 minutes before the release until 15–30 minutes after. This is a complete plan on its own.
2. Wait and trade the reaction. Let the first 15 minutes pass. Then treat that 15-minute stretch like an opening range, and trade only a clean break of it.

Plan 2 is a close cousin of the opening range breakout.

The rules a beginner would write down

1. Calendar check: "Every morning I check the calendar. I write down any high-impact release and its time."
2. Before the release: "No open trades from 5 minutes before until 15 minutes after. If I'm in a swing trade, I either accept the risk at a smaller size, or close it."
3. Entry (if trading the reaction): "I mark the high and low of the first 15 minutes after the release. I enter only after a 5-minute candle body closes outside that range. A wick doesn't count."
4. Stop and target: "Stop at the middle of the post-release range, or past its other side. Target at least 2 times my risk. If the range is so wide the stop is huge, no trade."
5. Size and limit: "Half my normal risk on news days, about 0.5%, because fills are worse. One news trade per release. If it fails, I'm done until tomorrow."

A worked example in units

CPI comes out at 8:30 am ET. An illustration on EUR/USD:

• 8:30 to 8:45 range: high 1.1060, low 1.1010. A 50-pip range.
• At 8:55 a 5-minute body closes at 1.1068. Entry: 1.1068.
• Stop at the range middle: 1.1035. Risk: 33 pips.
• Target: 2 × 33 = 66 pips above entry = 1.1134.
• Half-size risk: 0.5% of 10,000 units = 50. That's about 1.5 units per pip. The pip value calculator turns that into a lot size.

If it fails, about 50 units are lost, maybe more if spreads are still wide. If it reaches the target, about 100. A math example, not a promise.

How to practice it on replay

1. Find past release dates on the BLS site (bls.gov) or the Fed's meeting calendar (federalreserve.gov).
2. In TradingView bar replay, go to 8:00 am ET on that day on a 5-minute chart.
3. Step through the release candle. Write what you would have felt like doing.
4. Wait 15 minutes of candles, mark the range, then follow your rules.
5. Log it in your trading journal: the release, actual vs forecast, the range size, your trade and the result in units of risk.

Replay can't show you how wide the spread got or how bad fills were. Add a cost buffer to every replay result on news days.

Questions