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What is a good win rate in trading? It depends on one other number
There's no single good win rate. A 40% win rate can work fine, and a 70% win rate can still lose, depending on how big your wins are compared with your losses. Here's the table that shows it.
The short answer
A good win rate is one that's high enough for the size of your wins. If your average win is twice your average loss, you need to win just over 1 trade in 3 to break even before costs.
So the real question isn't "what's a good win rate?" It's "what's my win rate and my average win, together?"
What win rate means
Your Win rate is the share of trades that make money.
- 10 trades, 4 winners → 40% win rate.
- 10 trades, 7 winners → 70% win rate.
It feels like the score that matters most. It's only half the score.
The other half: wins vs losses in units of risk
Let's measure every trade in units of risk. One unit is what you lose if your stop is hit. (Traders often call this 1R.)
- A trade that hits its stop = −1 unit.
- A trade that wins twice what you risked = +2 units.
Now win rate and win size work together.
Example: 10 trades. 4 wins at +2 units, 6 losses at −1 unit. That's +8 − 6 = +2 units. A 40% win rate, and the total is above zero. A math example, not a promise.
Example: 10 trades. 7 wins at +0.5 units, 3 losses at −1 unit. That's +3.5 − 3 = +0.5 units. Now make it 6 wins and 4 losses: +3 − 4 = −1 unit. A high win rate with small wins has very little room. A math example, not a promise.
The break-even table
Here's the win rate you need just to break even, before fees, for each win size:
| Average win (units of risk) | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 0.5 | 67% |
| 1 | 50% |
| 1.5 | 40% |
| 2 | 33% |
| 3 | 25% |
The formula: break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + average win). Costs push each number a bit higher.
You can test your own numbers with the expectancy calculator. Expectancy is the average result per trade, in units of risk. See Expectancy.
Why high win rates can mislead
A very high win rate often comes from one of these:
- Taking profits very fast while letting losses run.
- Moving the stop further away so it rarely gets hit.
- No stop at all, so small losses turn into one large one.
Each of these makes the win rate look great until one big loss erases many small wins. More in the high win rate myth.
Why low win rates feel hard
A 35% win rate with +2-unit wins can work on paper. But it means long losing streaks are normal. Five or six losses in a row will happen.
That's where risk per trade matters. At 1% risk, six losses in a row is about 6% of the account. At 10% risk, it's most of it. See how much to risk per trade and try the losing streak calculator.
How many trades before your win rate means anything?
Not 10. With 10 trades, a few lucky or unlucky ones swing the number a lot.
As a rough guide, wait for at least 50 trades of the same setup, and ideally 100, before you trust your win rate. Practice on past charts gets you there faster, with no money at risk. See how to backtest a trading strategy.
What to track instead of just win rate
Log these on every trade:
- The setup name (so you compare like with like).
- Result in units of risk (−1, +2, +0.5…).
- Did you follow your rules? Yes or no.
- Fees paid.
Then, every 20 trades, work out win rate, average win, average loss and expectancy. Our free trading journal template has the columns ready. See how to keep a trading journal.
The rule check matters most. Split your log into "followed rules" and "broke rules." Compare the two win rates. That one comparison often teaches more than any setup change.
Common mistakes
- Judging a setup after 5 trades. Too few to tell anything.
- Chasing a higher win rate by shrinking targets until each win is tiny.
- Ignoring fees, which raise the break-even win rate on every line of the table.
- Mixing setups in one number, so you can't see which one works.
Questions
Is a 50% win rate good in trading?
It depends on your average win. With wins the same size as losses, 50% is break-even before fees. With wins twice the size of losses, 50% leaves room for costs and bad streaks.
What win rate do professional traders have?
It varies a lot by style. Many trend-following traders win less than half their trades, while some short-term styles win more often with smaller wins. Win rate alone doesn't tell you much.
Is a 30% win rate too low?
On paper, a 30% win rate is above break-even if the average win is more than about 2.3 times the average loss. That's math, not a promise. Real results also depend on costs, discipline and losing streaks.
How do I calculate my win rate?
Divide winning trades by total trades and multiply by 100. 12 wins out of 30 trades is a 40% win rate.
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