Losing streak calculator: how many losses in a row should you expect?
Even a coin flip loses 6 in a row more often than people think. Play out 10,000 runs of your trades and see the streak to plan for — before it shows up.
| A losing streak of… | Chance it happens at least once | Account drop from that streak |
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How it works: it plays out your number of trades 10,000 times with random wins and losses at your win rate, and counts how often each losing streak shows up. Every loss costs your risk % of what's left. It's a simulation of luck — it assumes each trade is independent, which real trading isn't quite.
The streak everyone forgets to plan for
Even a coin flip produces long losing runs. Over 100 trades at a 50% win rate, a streak of 5 or 6 losses in a row is normal, not a sign something's broken. The question isn't "will it happen?" — it's "can my account shrug it off?". At 1% risk, 8 losses in a row costs about 8%. At 10% risk, it costs over half. That's the whole case for small, fixed risk and a daily loss limit.
Make this a habit, not a one-off. Lesson 2 of our free email course is all about risk: the 1% rule, where the stop goes, and the 2-loss rule. Send me the free lessons →
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